![]() However, Lopez Obrador’s party lost its qualified majority in congress in the 2021 elections, enabling its political opposition to stop the executive’s proposal to reform Mexico’s energy system in April 2022. The dismantling of climate change governance sends a clear message to Mexicans and the international community that climate change and the environment are simply not a priority in Mexico. Reforms to the General Climate Change Law in 2020 eliminated the Climate Change Fund and in 2021, the government announced the dissolution of the National Institute for Climate Change. As part of the Federal Budget for 2021 and again in 2022, over 70% of the budget under ‘climate change mitigation and adaptation effects’ has been allocated to the transport infrastructure of fossil gas. Lopez Obrador’s government also continues to subsidise the use of fossil fuels in the transport sector as a response to the global energy crisis and inflation rates that have stemmed from Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. These actions were included in the ten ‘climate’ actions Mexico is committed to pursuing in the coming years, presented by President Lopez Obrador at the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate held by President Biden in June 2022. Instead of investing in renewable energy, Mexico has acquired an oil refinery in the US and is fast-tracking the construction of another in Dos Bocas, Tabasco. For Mexico to reverse trends and transition towards a 1.5☌-compatible pathway, it needs to reverse its policies, move away from fossil fuels, foster renewable energy, and tackle the transport sector. Mexico is on track to achieve its old and new unambitious climate targets in 2030. Mexico’s greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise – despite the brief dip caused by the COVID-19 pandemic – and are projected to continue increasing through 2030. This puts the country’s emissions pathway even further from the Paris Agreement 1.5☌ goal. Mexico’s climate policies under President Lopez Obrador continue to go backwards, as fossil fuel use is prioritised and climate-related policies and institutions dismantled. ![]() Mexico’s 2022 NDC update removes the target to peak emissions in 2026 and does not mention any net zero nor other long-term targets. While technically allowed, this accounting approach has been criticised as in-transparent for over 20 years. In 2019, reported sinks were almost 200 MtCO 2 e, or about a quarter of Mexico’s emissions excl. However, the NDC does intend to use these sinks to achieve the target, highlighting that nature-based solutions are ‘central’ to achieving the targets. Mexico pursues a “gross-net” approach, meaning it counts only emissions sources in its BAU, ignoring sinks from land use and forestry. The 2022 update is less specific on the contribution of forestry to the target, which may make it more difficult to argue its ambition. The 2022 NDC update replaces the 2020 update, which became invalid after a Mexican court found that it is less ambitious than the very first NDC of 2016 and therefore a violation of continuous progression of ambition. Together this means that the new target can be met even if emissions excluding those of forestry are higher than what they could have been under the old target. In addition Mexico expects a higher contribution of emissions sinks in forests to achieving the target. But the business-as-usual (BAU) baseline, against which the targets are defined, has been revised upwards. The NDC update increases the percentage reduction of the unconditional target from 22% to 35% (30% with own resources and an additional 5% from agreed international support) by 2030 and from 36% to 40% conditional on additional international support. While the new target includes a larger percentage reduction it still leads to higher emissions. With this update, the CAT’s rating of Mexico’s climate targets and action worsens from “Highly insufficient” to “Critically insufficient”. Mexico will meet the unambitious target with already implemented policies as emissions continue to rise through 2030. ![]() The updated NDC lacks transparency and disguises its lack of ambition by counting forests differently in the base and in the target year. ![]() Mexico’s updated 2030 target (NDC), submitted in November 2022 results in higher emission levels than the targets from 2016, breaching both agreements under the Paris Agreement and Mexican Law – where governments committed to improve their targets over time. Mexico’s climate policies continue to go backwards, as fossil fuel use is prioritised and climate-related policies and institutions dismantled.
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